The Phillies were off on July 4th this year and, as of all the day's results, they stand at 42-38. That is good for third in the NL East. They trail the division leading Mets (50-30) by eight games. Trail the second place, and defending World Series champion, Braves (47-34) by 4.5 games. Is a division title in sight? Is it possible? Most people would say no as the Mets are really good this year and the Braves, after a slow start, have seemed to have found their way and be the Braves that we all know. (I still think the Braves overtake the Mets for the division.)
Here's a more important stat: Because of the series loss (lost two of three) to the Phillies and then losing to the Braves on the 4th, the St. Louis Cardinals only lead the Phillies by ONE game for the final wild card spot. Couple this with the San Francisco Giants having lost five straight, and eight of the last ten, they are the closest team to the Cards for that spot. Can they make it to the playoffs this year and end a National League worst ten straight years without a playoff berth? Just for record, the Seattle Marines are the worst in all of baseball at 20 years, having not made the playoffs since 2001 (I was still in high school!) when they won 116 games and lost to the New York Yankees in the ALCS.
There's reason for optimism and pessimism. The most obvious reason to not believe is because of the injury to Bryce Harper. He was hit by a pitch on his hand to the point that it required surgery and may be out until September. Curse you, Blake Snell... I jest as Snell was immediately in anguish as he hit Harper, clearly it was unintentional. Here's what the Phillies have lost with Harper being out:
.318 AVG, .358 OBP, .599 SLG, .984 OPS, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 9 SB
Slightly off pace of his MVP numbers from last season but still better than his career numbers, he was headed to the All-Star game as the starter for the NL at the DH spot. That's serious production lost that several players have to fill. The only good thing is that, even if he doesn't come back this season, he's only going to be 30 by the end of this season. He's still in his prime.
Another reason not to believe is that the bats in the lineup can be hot and cold. It was clear to everyone that the lineup put together by Dave Dombrowski was built to put a lot of runs up. At times, the bats have been eerily silent. Now, true, there are great pitchers in the majors that can shut down any lineup. But, if you can light up Max Scherzer for a few homeruns in a game, you can hit against anyone.
The other major reason would be the struggles of the pitching at times. Outside of the front end of the lineup, you don't always know what you are going to get. (Hello Familia?) On days where the batting is shut down and struggling to manufacture runs, you need the pitching to keep the game close. Can we believe in this pitching staff? They are part of the reason that the team lost all four games against the 37-41 Texas Rangers and are also 21-24 versus teams over .500.
They also haven't seemed to figure out the division. This has been a problem for several years, mainly against the Marlins as of late. This year, they are 6-3 against the NL Central, including an earlier sweep of the Brewers. 16-11 against the NL West, which includes taking three of four from the Dodgers IN LA. 7-6 in interleague play. But only 13-18 against the division. With 76 games in the division, that pace only adds up to about 31 or 32 wins. That's not going to cut it when 47 percent of your games are in the division. For reference, the Mets are 24-9 in the division. The Braves, 15-11. The Marlins, 22-14. Only the Nationals, 6-28, are worse.
If you want to be optimistic, you have to start with the batting. As I just said, the team is built to score. And, boy, they can SCORE. The recently finished series against the Cards had the Phillies score five runs a game. In the month of June, where the team went 19-8, the team averaged 5.4 runs per game. The team ranks fourth overall in all of baseball, third in the NL, in total runs scored with 385. It's not JUST Harper that puts up the runs. With Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and the emergence of the younger players and role players, the team is still quite capable to score without their best hitter.
Including beating a St. Louis team with arguably the best 3-4 hitter combo in baseball (Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado for those that don't know), the team has played very well since the firing of Joe Girardi on June 3rd. They were 22-29 when he was fired. That would equal about 69 to 70 wins over the course of a full season at that pace. They are 20-9 since. Which is a pace of, believe it or not, 111 to 112 wins over a full 162 game season. Not saying that they are suddenly shooting to the top of the majors or anything but, they have played better. With that pace, and the amount of games remaining, their win total would be 97. Will they actually reach that? Who knows. Is that enough to make the playoffs? Absolutely. It is enough to win the division? Possibly, but overtaking the Mets (101 win pace) and Braves (94 win pace) would still be tough.
They are also playing better than their record shows. Even though they only have 42 wins, the team has a run differential of +45, good enough for a 45-35 team. It still wouldn't pass the Braves in the division, but it would pass the Cardinals for the Wild Card spot and put them a game behind the San Diego Padres (47-35 and losers of 7 out of the last 10) for the second Wild Card spot.
The pitching has been better in recent games. The farther we have gotten away from the abbreviated spring training, the better it's been. Yes, there are still woes, for sure. The But, there has been signs of improvement. The bullpen as a whole has been better over the last month or so for starters. Zack Wheeler, after a rough April and shortened Spring Training where his ERA was creeping to 6, has figured it out and been the stud he always has been since arriving to Philadelphia. He is now 7-4 with a very nice ERA of 2.66. Almost half of his earned runs (12/26) were in April. Aaron Nola has had a similar turnaround. After a rough April where his ERA was nearly 4, his ERA has gone down each month to where he is now at 3.13 for the season after having an ERA of 2.51 in the month of June. He's currently second in the NL in strikeouts. Of course the team is going to need more than just these two pitchers, but the Phillies have to feel great about the matchup when their two best pitchers are rolling along well. Wheeler's last start was a 7-inning shutout masterpiece. And since April 17th, where he allowed seven runs in three innings, he's only had one start since that day (the very next start) where he's allowed more than three earned runs. His ERA since that start is 2.02. Nola's last 5 starts have had him go at least 7 innings (37 total) and allow a total of seven earned runs for an ERA of 1.70.
Rob Thomson knows what he is doing and can lead the team. Maybe it was time for a new voice in the clubhouse. Maybe the players soured on Girardi. Maybe his philosophy is different. Yes, the sample size is a bit smaller but, 20-9 is 20-9. And it's sure not 22-29. Now, there's a lot of season left and, anything can happen. Have we seen enough from Rob Thomson to believe that this 20-9 team is what the Phillies really are? Maybe. Maybe not. Time will tell. Especially with the loss of Harper. These Phillies aren't last year's Atlanta Braves that won the World Series without arguably not only their best player, but one of the best in all of baseball in Ronald Acuna Jr. At least not yet they aren't. He surely has them trending in the right way and the team seems to be having more fun.
I'd like to believe that the Phillies can make a playoff push. If I were a betting man, I'd say they push for the second or third Wild Card spot. I don't believe they'll win the division without Bryce Harper in the lineup. He's that good. But, as currently constructed, I think the team can at least make a good playoff push. It's going to be how the season has been. Long, stressful and frustrating. But, they can do it. As long as they figure the division out along the way.
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