With six weeks of the NFL season for 2022 season in the book, we're a third of the way through the season. Teams are taking their bye weeks now and we're finding out what kind of team many of the teams in the league actually are.
There is plenty of time for many things to change, however, and the way things are now does not mean that they will end that way. Twelve weeks remain in the season and the weather hasn't gone completely cold yet, which could affect how some teams play (mainly teams in the southwest, southeast and dome teams).
With that said, let's see how the playoff picture is shaping up! I'll update this every week after the Monday Night Football game.
AFC:
1: Buffalo Bills (5-1) - Lead AFC East / Next game: Bye Week
They are the AFC's best team and one best in the entire league, depending on what you think of Philadelphia. Josh Allen is an MVP candidate, defense is legit, they just won a huge game in Kansas City and the schedule the rest of the way is favorable with their non divisional game (division games are always tough) against the Vikings in week 13 being the hardest game remaining on paper. Oh, that game is in Orchard Park.
2: Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) - Lead AFC West via head to head win / Next game: At San Francisco
Two divisional games, road games against the Cardinals, Colts, and Tom Brady and welcoming Josh Allen to Arrowhead. To come out of that at 4-2, puts the Chiefs in a good spot. Yes, losing a home game to the Bills on Sunday is tough, and may cost the Chiefs the one seed, but they are in good shape to still host playoff games in January. Their remaining schedule has only one team that has the same amount of wins as them currently, and that will be against the Chargers in SoFi after Thanksgiving.
3: Tennessee Titans (3-2) - Lead AFC South / Next game: Against Indianapolis
They were on a bye this week and nothing was going to take them out of first place. While questions will probably remain about QB Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry seems to have come around. The team does miss A.J. Brown, though. The division itself is not too great and they may be in good shape to win it again. The schedule is a little rough with five division games remaining and a date against the Chiefs in the near future with late season road dates against the Eagles and Chargers and a home date against the Cowboys. All three of those teams could be looking at jockeying for playoff positioning.
4: Baltimore Ravens (3-3) - Lead AFC North via head to head win / Next game: Against Cleveland
A win against the Bengals keeps them at the top of the North despite the troubling trend of blowing double digit leads. Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson and that's a good thing. They have the added fact that the rest of the division is in bad shape, too, making their path to the division title still possible. Their bye is in week 10, which is probably a good thing since after facing the Browns next week, they play a visit to Tampa on a short week and the face the Saints in New Orleans 11 days later before their bye. Afterwards, half of their eight games are divisional and three of those four games are on the road. The defense has to turn it around soon.
5: Los Angeles Chargers (4-2) - Second in AFC West due to head to head loss / 5th in AFC due to better conference record / Next game: Against Seattle
After gutting out a tough divisional win, the Bolts are sitting pretty in the five spot. They get to stay home for another week as the Seahawks come to town. After that, a well needed bye to see if they can recover from tough injuries. Star QB Justin Herbert has the rib issue while Keenan Allen, Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater are all still out, too. The team has talent on it to where they should be in one of the three wildcard spots come January. Can head coach Brandon Staley keep it together?
6: New York Jets (4-2) - Second in AFC East / 6th in AFC due to worse conference record / Next game: At Denver
Without question the biggest surprise in the AFC. The offseason that the Jets had built promise and even had this blogger thinking that the Jets were trending up. But, in a good spot and JUST A GAME BEHIND BUFFALO after a third of the season? Did not see that coming. Coming off an excellent win IN LAMBEAU against Green Bay, the team heads to Denver to go up against a struggling QB in Russell Wilson. The home game (and first meeting of the season) against the Bills on November 9th looks more interesting now.
7: Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) - Second in AFC South / Next game: At Tennessee
Somehow, this team won half of their first six games. Matt Ryan hasn't been the complete turnaround from Carson Wentz that people (including me) thought he would be. Yes, the team is missing stud RB Jonathan Taylor (since week 4). And, I love Frank Reich but, he hasn't had the answers to get the team to play better. The team has been outscored by 18 points and has only scored 103 total points at the point in the season. Their next opponent actually has a WORSE (-22) margin. With the entire NFC East still to come, as well as back to back December games against the Vikings and Chargers, the team will have to navigate some potentially tough games to make a run at the division title or to remain in the wild card spots.
First teams out:
8. Cincinnati Bengals / head to head loss to Baltimore (3-3)
9: Miami Dolphins / head to head loss to Cincinnati (3-3)
10: New England Patriots / head to head loss to Miami, worse common loss (Baltimore) than Cincinnati (3-3)
If the season ended today:
Bye to divisional round: Buffalo Bills
Super Wild Card Weekend:
Colts at Chiefs
Jets at Titans
Chargers at Ravens
NFC:
1: Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) - Lead NFC East / Next game: Bye Week
Fly Eagles Fly! The NFL's lone unbeaten team, the Eagles will be on the bye after beating Dallas and will remain in first place regardless of the results of next week. Sporting the 6th best pass defense and an elite secondary that is second in the league with 9 INTs, the team has relied on its 5th ranked rushing attack running behind the league's best offensive line to chew clock after blazing ahead with their historically great second quarters. While second half play is a concern, as well as the run defense, the most astounding stats about this team is not only the league leading +12 turnover differential, but the fact that they have yet to trail in the second half of any game this season. If this team plays a complete game, while continuing to play mistake free football, they could be even better. The schedule is favorable as it seems that the team's hardest remaining non divisional game at the moment is a date with Green Bay at the Linc after Thanksgiving.
2: Minnesota Vikings (5-1) - Lead NFC North / Next game: Bye Week
Having only lost to Philadelphia, the Vikings are sitting pretty at the top of the NFC North as they go into the bye. They also have already beaten each team in their division once. Justin Jefferson is a legit star (despite having a rough two weeks against the Eagles and Lions) and Kirk Cousins has kept the ship afloat by being statistically good. They have been outgained in total yards and only have a scoring differential of +21, though, with their biggest margin of victory (+16, a 23-7 win against Green Bay) being nullified by their only loss (24-7). However, wins are wins in the NFL and teams will take them however they get them. The schedule will get tough after the bye as the two of the remaining three divisional games (Green Bay and Chicago) are at the end of the season and on the road and games against the Bills, Cowboys, Giants and Jets still remain.
3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) - Lead NFC South via head to head / 3rd in NFC via better conference record / Next game: At Carolina
Reeling from a tough loss in Pittsburgh, Carolina seems like a get right game for the Buccaneers. Tampa's defense isn't the issue here as only one opponent (Patrick Mahomes) has scored more than 20 points on them. Tom Brady and the rest of the offense has not looked right under Todd Bowles in his first season after taking over for Bruce Arians. Perhaps OC Byron Leftwich, Bowles and Brady can figure it out. They have have to figure it out in a hurry as a date with the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who has played well, is after this Carolina game and it will be on a short week as that game is Thursday Night Football.
4: San Francisco 49ers (3-3) - Lead NFC West via head to head / 4th in NFC via worse conference record / Next game: Against Kansas City
Elite defensively (89 points allowed, 2nd to Buffalo), questionable offensively, Jimmy G is your quarterback. With Trey Lance gone for the season, you could argue that QB Jimmy Garoppolo is the reason that they are able to be 3-3 right now. But, we know that despite Kyle Shanahan being an offensive mind, the team's strength is on defense with their most points allowed being the most recent game - a 28-14 loss to Atlanta. Before that game, no team had managed to score more than 19 points on this unit. The next three games may go a long way towards seeing where this team will be:
Kansas City, L.A. Rams, bye week, L.A. Chargers.
After that, three divisional games remain, but games against the Bucs and Dolphins (and a possibly healthy Tua) will be the hardest non divisional games.
5: New York Giants (5-1) - Second in NFC East / Next game: At Jacksonville
The biggest surprise in the NFC. Things are good for both New York football teams. Brian Daboll has the G-Men playing well enough to win games. The formula seems to be to just keep the game close in the 4th quarter and then find a way to win. The most recent example? Coming back from 10 points down and beating the Ravens. While there are still questions around the team, mainly about QB Daniel Jones and the sustainability of the offense, RB Saquon Barkley has looked good and the team has been able to gut out wins despite only having a +14 scoring margin. All of their games have been decided by one score and four have been less than six points. Their only loss was a big one: A home loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, and it could go a long way towards playoff positioning if the team continues to play well. Competitive trap games against the Jags and Seahawks loom before the bye.
6: Dallas Cowboys (4-2) - Third in NFC East / Next game: Against Detroit
Another elite defensive team, and the only third place team in playoff positioning, their QB situation is expected to get better with Dak Prescott preparing to return for the Lions. There is no shame in losing to Philadelphia or Tampa as both teams are also elite defensively. The loss to Philadelphia does sting more due to now effectively being three games back in the division despite being 4-2 at the one-third mark. They will not see the Eagles again until Christmas Eve and one will wonder if that game will matter much if Philadelphia continues to play well. Backup QB Cooper Rush did his job very well: He won 4 out of 5 games (he entered late in the first game of the season) and kept the ship afloat, leaving the Cowboys in good shape. The Lions game, and the Bears game afterwards, should be a good way to ease Prescott back to football and then head into a bye. The bye is good timing as three monster games are after the bye that could decide their season's fate: At Green Bay, at Minnesota, home rematch against the Giants.
7: Los Angeles Rams (3-3) - Second in NFC West / 7th in NFC via better conference record / Next game: Bye Week
The bye probably came at a good time as this team seems to be suffering a huge Super Bowl hangover. The offense hasn't got going (and likely misses Odell Beckham Jr.) and the defense hasn't been as stout (and likely misses Von Miller). Beating the Panthers was nice but the turnaround is fast as the 49ers (who already beat them badly, 24-9), Bucs and Cardinals are the first three games after the bye. Matthew Stafford is at the top of the league in interceptions (again) and has thrown more INTs (8) than TDs (6) despite a sparkling 71.1 completion percentage, which is 2nd in the league (unless you count New England's Bailey Zappe's 72.9% on 51 attempts). Turning this around will probably be head coach Sean McVay's toughest task yet.
First teams out:
8. Green Bay Packers (3-3) / worse conference record than the Rams
9: Atlanta Falcons (3-3) / head to head loss to Tampa
10: Seattle Seahawks (3-3) / head to head losses to San Francisco & Atlanta
Green Bay is 2-2 in the conference while Atlanta and Seattle are 2-3 in the conference. Meanwhile, the Rams are 3-2 in the conference.
If the season ended today:
Bye to divisional round: Philadelphia Eagles
Super Wild Card Weekend:
Rams at Vikings
Cowboys at Buccaneers
Giants at 49ers
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