We're coming down the home stretch! There are only a few byes left in the season and the weather is getting cold! Playoff races are shaping up and it looks like it's going to be an interesting ride to the finish line! Let's get to this week's picks!
Thursday:
Packers (home) over Titans
Had the Packers lost last week to Dallas, I may have flipped this pick. But, seeing Rodgers engineer a 14 point comeback, and winning in overtime on a good Dallas D, makes me believe that maybe he has turned the corner and has found a way and found his groove. I still expect to see a huge dose of Derrick Henry in this game for the Titans.
Sunday:
Bears over Falcons (home)
I feel like I can trust the Bears to continue to put up points on the Falcon defense. Justin Fields still needs to grow as a passer, but he has shown that he can make plays. I'm not too sold on Marcus Mariota for the Falcons but, since they are in playoff positioning (barely), they likely won't give rookie Desmond Ridder a look yet.
Eagles over Colts (home)
Of course, I'm going to pick my favorite team, right? In all seriousness, they failed their test at home against the Commanders and, as a result, suffered their first loss of the season. Turnovers were a big part of it (yes, we know about the bad calls from the refs in the game) but, coaching schemes, time of possession, run defense, and soft coverage were also to blame. The players and coaches said the right things after the game and have turned their focus to Indy. Indy is riding high off of their first win with interim head coach Jeff Saturday and will be looking for another signature win (they've beaten Kansan City, remember?). Philadelphia's signing of Linval Joseph looks to be huge to shore up the run defense as they go up against Jonathan Taylor.
Patriots (home) over Jets
I'm not betting against The Hoodie anymore when it comes to his Jets mastery. He was able to beat them a few weeks ago in East Rutherford, so I think he can do it again in the warm (metaphorically) confines of Gillette Stadium. Something to watch is whether or not Mac Jones plays well against this good Jets defense or will we see Bailey Zappe again. Jets head man Robert Saleh has done a wonderful turnaround this season but has yet to beat Belichick.
Commanders over Texans (home)
Riding high off of their best win of the season, the Commanders looks to continue their push in the wild card. QB Taylor Heinicke has played above expectations and is now giving head coach Ron Rivera something to consider with QB Carson Wentz. The Texans will be looking to spoil the fun with stud rookie RB Damien Pierce leading the way. The Texans play a lot of close games and I don't expect this one to be any different.
Rams over Saints (home)
I keep picking them and maybe I'll be right one of these weeks. It's pretty much do or die for the Rams this week as a loss would be crushing to any hope of the playoffs. They are already without their best offensive player in Cooper Kupp and QB Matthew Stafford may still be in concussion protocol. On the Saints side, it seems that they are sticking with Andy Dalton at QB over Jameis Winston despite having arguably the best offensive player in this matchup - RB Alvin Kamara. He would need to be featured more to give the Saints a chance on offense regardless of the QB.
Bills (home) over Browns
The Bills are on a mini slide and this may be the perfect way to cure it. Josh Allen has looked mortal the past few weeks and has also become a bit turnover prone. The defense also let down as Minnesota was able to come back and win what turned out to be the game of the year in Orchard Park. The Browns are still without QB Desean Watson (he returned to practice this week from suspension) and it may not even matter given their current playoff positioning. At least RB Nick Chubb is having a good season.
Ravens (home) over Panthers
The home stretch starts for Lamar Jackson and co. The Panthers have pretty much sold on the season, given what has happened over the past few weeks, and this has the making of a beatdown - despite the team playing hard for their interim head coach (see: game against the Bengals a few weeks ago).
Giants (home) over Lions
The G-Men continue their push to keep pace in the top of wild card spots with Minnesota and the division with Philadelphia by going up against a Lions team that may have found some of the offensive mojo from earlier in the season. I expect a heavy dose of RB Saquon Barkley against what has been a very bad Lions defense. What won't surprise me? This game ends within a score. That's all the Giants seem to do.
Broncos (home) over Raiders
I don't know what's more surprising: The fact that with Russell Wilson, the Broncos offense is so bad, despite having one of the league's best defenses, or the fact that Josh McDaniels is still a head coach after losing to an interim coach who coached his first game at a level beyond high school. I wouldn't be surprised if both coaches are gone after the season (even though Raiders owner Mark Davis has seem to given McDaniels a vote of confidence after the Colts loss last week).
Vikings (home) over Cowboys
Probably the biggest game of the week with seeding and positioning in the NFC on the line. I think I would flip this if the game took place in Jerry World. The Vikings are coming off winning the Game of the Year so far in Orchard Park, while Dallas coming off a blown lead loss at Lambeau. The Vikings are like a better version of the Giants: winning close games and the QB isn't the best offensive player but is doing his part to win games. Dallas will need to have big games from both sides of the ball to pull of this massive road win.
Bengals over Steelers (home)
Rested and ready for the stretch run, the Bengals just seem to be the better team right now. Though Pittsburgh has the better coach, and I never want to count him out, they just don't seem to have the horses for this one. Anything can happen in divisional games, though. Pittsburgh will look to build off a win in New Orleans last week to pull off an upset and damage Cincy's playoff hopes. I think this game may be close.
Chiefs over Chargers (home)
A tough prime time divisional matchup for the Bolts, for sure, they will look to knock off the division leaders (and front runners in the AFC) and keep themselves in the playoff race. They already suffered a close home loss in primetime last week and will not want to repeat that. ON the other side, Kansas City is doing what we've expected them to do over the past few years: win games at the start, have a confusing loss (Indy), string together several wins and pull ahead in the AFC later in the year, and have their QB in the MVP discussion. This team seems to be a machine at times.
Monday:
49ers over Cardinals (home)
A third straight divisional game for the Cardinals, having split the first two. The best defense in the NFL comes to town and both teams need a win. The 49ers are in better shape having won their last two (and with Seattle losing last week) to close the gap with Seattle. Despite the Commanders winning on Monday, they still have the inside track on a wild card spot and control their own destiny. The Cards are on the outside of the playoff picture and trail several teams for the 7th playoff spot. This game could be even tougher if QB Kyler Murray is unable to go.
Here's how we are doing so far.
Week 1 - 7-8-1
Week 2 - 9-7
Week 3 - 6-10
Week 4 - 7-9
Week 5 - 10-6
Week 6 - 5-9
Week 7 - 8-6
Week 8 - 10-5
Week 9 - 11-2
Week 10: 7-7
Season so far: 80-69-1
Let's get over 90 wins for the season this week!
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