As we get down to the final two months of the season, it's time we start looking at the playoff picture much more frequently as the positioning of the teams can change from week to week.
1 seed: Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
Next game: at Los Angeles Chargers
The first of four potentially tough games start for Andy Reid's group this weekend with a divisional game on the road. They may be favored in all of them but, the Bengals game on December 4th is IN CINCY could prove to be tough but will give them a chance to exact revenge on their losses to them last year. The have the driver's seat to the top seed. Patrick Mahomes likely leads the MVP race - without Tyreek Hill. Their destiny is in their hands.
2 seed: Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Next game: Bye
The only current AFC playoff team on a bye this week, Miami will get to enjoy the division lead until the results of the Jets game goes final. Jets win, they go to second place in the division. After a visit from the Texans next week, the Fins will play two straight playoff hopefuls in the 49ers and Chargers before a huge rematch against the Bills in Orchard Park.
3 seed: Tennessee Titans (6-3 - own the tiebreaker over BAL due to conference record: 5-2)
Next game: at Green Bay
Gutted out a tough win against a good Denver defense last week, the Titans now travel to Lambeau to take on a Packers team that may have found its stride. While the division is likely going to be theirs, positioning is absolutely still in play for this team as they would be looking at hosting the Bills in the wild card game if the season ended today. They are in the midst of a tough stretch that has Cincinnati and Philadelphia still to come.
4 seed: Baltimore Ravens (6-3 - lose tiebreaker to TEN due to conference record: 4-2)
Next game: Carolina
The path in front of them is simple: beat the teams in front of you. Now rested and placed with the leagues easiest remaining schedule, the Ravens are in position to run away with the division. Their hardest non divisional game will be against Denver - and they won't have to travel to Denver for that game. Running off a string of wins can put the pressure on the teams in front of them (that have harder schedules) to keep winning.
5 seed: New York Jets (6-3 - own the current tiebreaking head to head win over Buffalo)
Next game: at New England
Everything didn't go their way while on the bye as Miami did win to move to 7-3. Buffalo did lose, however, giving them a higher seed at the moment via their week 9 win over them. Now off the bye, the team starts out with a immediate test: The Hoodie. A team they haven't beaten (this season included) in years. The game will go a long way to seeing if they will be able to compete with the top teams in the AFC come playoff time - should they remain in position - as two non conference games follow (Chicago, Minnesota) before a huge rematch against the Bills in Orchard Park.
6 seed: Buffalo Bills (6-3 - lost to NYJ week 9, currently don't own the tiebreaker)
Next game: Cleveland
Losers of two straight, they surrendered the division and conference lead to Miami and Kansas City, respectively. The huge win against the Chiefs seems like ages ago as now the team has blown leads and become turnover prone over the last few weeks. Perhaps the team was distracted from the Super Bowl talk and MVP talk for QB Josh Allen. Right now, they have to focus on this game and then immediately next one against supposedly inferior opponents (Cleveland, at Detroit) as they play Thanksgiving. After the holiday, three straight divisional games, where they'll play each team once, and they still have yet to win a divisional game, await.
7 seed: New England Patriots (5-4 - own the tiebreaker over LAC due to strength of victory)
Next game: New York Jets
Off the bye and winners of their last two, the Pats will look to continue their dominance of the Jets this weekend at home. While questions remain at QB, for sure, the team is in playoff positioning despite that. The schedule is unforgiving this week as the surging Vikings await on Thanksgiving and the first of two matches against Buffalo (and second straight Thursday game) follow.
Teams In the Hunt
8. Los Angeles Chargers (5-4 - own the tiebreaker over CIN due to conference record: 4-2)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 - own a worse conference record than LAC: 2-3)
10. Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
The way the season is trending, these teams are a collision course with other playoff hopefuls. The Bolts and Colts play each other the day after Christmas while the Bengals and Patriots will play each other the day BEFORE Christmas.
Obviously, they have to get there first as:
The Chargers have K.C. this week and the Dolphins and Titans in the two games before the Christmas weekend.
The Bengals have the Titans and Chiefs starting next week and then the Bucs before Christmas weekend.
The Colts have Philadelphia this weekend, and then the Cowboys two weeks later before their bye. Immediately after the bye, they travel to Minnesota and then they get the Chargers the day after Christmas.
Current Playoff Matchups
Bye to the Divisional Round: Kansas City Chiefs
Super Wild Card Weekend:
#6 Buffalo at 3 Tennessee
1 seed: Philadelphia Eagles (8-1 - own the head to head tiebreaker over MIN)
Next game: at Indianapolis
Having been humbled, embarrassed, and beaten on national television Monday, the undefeated season is no more. The major flaws of the team (scheme, run defense, special teams) all reared their respective ugly heads and, combined with sloppy ball security, time of possession deficit, and some terrible penalty luck, the team was outplayed by a division rival. While their division lead is safe for at least another week, the conference lead is not. Now the team moves on, still in control of their own destiny despite all of that. Up next, an Indianapolis Colts team that won their first game with an interim coach last weekend.
2 seed: Minnesota Vikings (8-1 - lost to PHI week 2, doesn't own the tiebreaker)
Next game: Dallas
Fresh off of ANOTHER thriller, the Vikings are believing. Even to the point that some of their players feel as if they can go all the way to the Super Bowl. Who can blame them? All of their past seven wins have been within one score - with the last two wins being of the comeback variety. The loss to Philadelphia is looming large as that is the only tiebreaker that concerns them as far as playoff seeding go. Meaning that they will have to keep winning and get help from opponents on Philadelphia's schedule to pass them. As far as winning goes, the next test for Minnesota? A huge game against the Cowboys.
3 seed: Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Next game: bye
Having lost to Tampa Bay in Germany last week, their hold on the division lead is now in peril due to an earlier loss this season to the 49ers. There's nothing they can do about it, either, as they will be spectators as the 49ers play the Cardinals Monday night with the division lead for their taking with a win. They won't get another shot at the 49ers until week 15 and, in the meantime, can only focus on Raiders, Rams, and Panthers, in that order, immediately after the bye before hosting San Fran for the rematch.
4 seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5)
Next game: bye
The Bucs find themselves at the .500 point after 10 weeks. With several tiebreakers currently in hand over the teams near them in the standings (Seahawks, 49ers, Falcons), this is probably a good time to remind people that this team was 7-5 after 12 games the year they won the Super Bowl. That's not to say that they'll win it all this year but, this team is not out of it at all. The division looks like it's theirs to lose at this point, and they have a pair of winnable games following their bye (Cleveland, New Orleans). A tasty matchup at Santa Clara is following those two games, and that game will have all kinds of tiebreaker and playoff implications.
5 seed: New York Giants (7-2)
Next game: Detroit
The G-Men continue to find ways to get wins despite them being one score games. The most recent result? An 8 point win against a competitive Houston team, despite their one win on the season. Off all current NFC playoff teams, they have the second lowest point differential. Of all the teams over .500 in the NFC, they have the lowest point differential. Across the league, their +14 point differential is only better than three teams in playoff position: Miami (+11), Tennessee (-2: worst among playoff teams), and Tampa Bay (+3). A fun fact, currently, the Jacksonville Jaguars at 3-7 have a point differential of +11.
6 seed: Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
Next game: at Minnesota
The loss to Green Bay was CRUSHING to say the least, as their defense failed them and the offense made costly mistakes (along with a questionable coaching decision) to cause them to fall behind the Giants in the standings in the division cost them another conference game (all three of their losses are in the conference) that could have implications on their tiebreakers at the end of the season. The tough part of the schedule continues as a surging Vikings team is waiting for them in Minnesota in what has the makings of another classic game in a season filled with them. I have a friend who lives in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and he says this in regards to the Green Bay game and the upcoming Vikings game:
"I just think the league is starting to realize that our Achilles heel is the run. Can't stop the run, we don't tackle well and we are undisciplined. Yeah Rodgers got those 3 long TDs but where we really got gashed was Aaron Jones just running the ball down our throats. He's (Micah Parsons) getting double and triple teamed and not enough consistent people stepping up to help. Diggs locks Lazard and then boom Watson has the game of his life. They need help. Step up."
7 seed: San Francisco 49ers
Next game: at Arizona
They're coming and they control their own destiny. Sitting at 5-4, they control the last wild card spot and are only a game behind the Seahawks for the division lead while currently owning the tiebreaker over them. They say defense travels and with the weather getting cold, they sport the best defense in the league, perfect for cold weather games this time of the year. They won't have to worry too much about the cold weather, though, as five of their remaining games are at home, one (this week) is in warm weather, and one (week 17 at Las Vegas) will be indoors. The potentially coldest game left? The week 15 rematch against the Seahawks at Lumen Field.
Teams In the Hunt
8. Washington Commanders (5-5)
Winners of four of the last five, the Commanders got a signature win over Philadelphia on Monday night to keep themselves within a half game of the 49ers for the final playoff spot. They have the competitive one win Houston Texans next.
9. Green Bay Packers (4-6 - own the current strength of victory tiebreaker over ATL, own the conference record tiebreaker over ARI)
Did Green Bay discover something in their season saving win against Dallas last week? They don't have long to enjoy the win as they have a quick turnaround to Thursday and welcome the AFC South leading Titans to Lambeau.
10. Atlanta Falcons (4-6 - lose the strength of victory tiebreaker to GB, own the conference record tiebreaker over ARI)
Losing the rematch to Carolina is tough for the Falcons as they are now a game behind an improving Tampa Bay team. This week's game against Chicago could determine their season.
11.Arizona Cardinals (4-6 - lose both tiebreakers to GB and ATL)
They got the win they needed by taking down a divisional foe in the Rams last week. Now, another divisional test is up as they take on the team in front of them in the playoff standings in the 49ers and their league leading defense. The good side to this matchup? It's in Glendale and not Santa Clara.
Current Playoff Matchups
Bye to the Divisional Round: Philadelphia Eagles
Super Wild Card Weekend
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