We're at the midway point of the season and week 10 has already gotten underway with the Thursday game already in the books. We are starting to see some teams for what they are while others may be looking to make that final push over the last two months of the season. Every team has played either 8 or 9 games to this point. Some will be on a bye this week and can only watch to see how their positioning changes.
1. Buffalo Bills (6-2) Next game: vs. Minnesota (Lead via head to head win over K.C.)
They hold the tiebreaker over Kansas City right now. But the bigger concern is Josh Allen's health as he is dealing with an elbow issue. Do the Bills sideline him and risk the division and playoff positioning? Or does the team have him play if he feels comfortable? If he can't go, Case Keenum will start against the 7-1 Vikings (which turns in to a bit of a revenge game). After this game, the schedule lightens up for about two weeks with dates against the Browns and Lions. But, three straight division games (in which they are 0-2 so far) start December. Decisions, decisions. Also, a loss Sunday (with a Miami win) drops the Bills to THIRD in the division. Yikes.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) Next game: vs. Jacksonville (second via head to head BUF loss)
They probably aren't going to admit this, but, they may be looking at that injury to Josh Allen with a little interest. They were competitive in their loss to the Bills a few weeks ago and could see this as an opening to have to road to the Super Bowl go through Arrowhead once more. They can't be caught looking too much as after this week, there are four straight games (two divisional) against competitive teams. Only one of those (L.A. Rams) are at home.
3. Baltimore Ravens (6-3) Next game: Bye
Sitting pretty at the top of the AFC North as they go in to their bye, the Ravens will remain there, regardless of results this weekend. Has the team gotten rid of their big lead meltdowns? Or was Monday night's beatdown of the Saints just them imposing their will on an inferior opponent? We may not know entirely as they have the league's easiest schedule to finish up, and they don't see the Bengals again (whom they've beaten once already) until the season finale. That game will be in Cincy, but it's very possible that the Ravens are 13-3 and have the division wrapped up at that point.
4. Tennessee Titans (5-3) Next game: vs. Denver
They gave the Chiefs all they could handle last week, taking them to overtime, but they eventually would lose, costing them the #1 seed at the time. Now, they could still reach that in next two months, but, they'll need help along the way. In the meantime, they can only handle their own business and focus on a good Denver defense coming to town this week. Of note, will Ryan Tannehill be back behind center or will get another look at rookie Malik Willis handing the ball off to Derrick Henry a bunch of times? These next four weeks (Denver, at GB, Cincy, at Philly) are interesting to see if they can get some wins to move up in the AFC standings. I think we can safely say that they'll win the South by default at this point.
5. New York Jets (6-3) Next game: bye (5th via head to head win over MIA)
What a time for the J-E-T-S, huh? Coming off their signature win of the season (and biggest in years), the teams rides in to their bye with their eyes on that same Buffalo Bills team this weekend. A Bills (and Dolphins) loss would put the NEW YORK JETS IN FIRST PLACE IN THE AFC EAST. You read that sentence correctly.
6. Miami Dolphins (6-3) Next game: vs Cleveland (6th via head to head NYJ loss)
An interesting weekend for the Dolphins, as well as the entire AFC East. While each team will be at .500 or better after the weekend, regardless of results, picture this:
Miami will be first in the division with a win + Bills loss
Miami will be second in the division if they and BUF wins
Miami remains third in the division if they lose since they currently hold the tiebreaker on NE
The next three weeks (Cleveland, bye, Houston) should set them up nicely for the tough stretch run starting in December with a trip to Santa Clara.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) Next game: at San Francisco
Injuries has been brutal to the Bolts but they remain on the heels of the Chiefs in the division at the halfway point. The schedule is also brutal the next three weeks (at SF, K.C, at ARI) as they work on getting healthy. It looks like it may be tough for the team to hold on to a wild card spot with the Pats and Bengals on their heels.
First teams out
8. New England Patriots (5-4) hold the conference record tiebreaker over CIN
9. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4)
Bengals at Patriots, December 24th (week 16)
Both teams are on a bye this week. Depending on how these teams play, that Christmas Eve game in Foxborough between these two could have SIGNIFICANT playoff implications for both of these teams. Both teams have losses against the Ravens and wins against the Jets and Steelers. The Pats will face the Jets again immediately after their bye while Cincy will play the Steelers again immediately after their bye. Cincy has beaten Miami while the Pats have lost against them while awaiting their week 17 rematch. Both teams have yet to play the Bills season (Cincy week 17, NE weeks 13 and 18). These are all things to look at as they could have huge playoff implications down the stretch.
1. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) Next game: vs Washington
A short week on the road against a competitive Texans team wasn't enough to knock the Eagles from their sole rank of undefeated. A divisional game Monday night is their next test before taking on the seemingly rebuilding Colts the following week. Afterwards, there are three key games to watch: vs. Green Bay, vs. Tennessee, at NYG.
2. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) Next game: at Buffalo
The NFC's second best team will remain in second place (and first in the NFC North) regardless of results this weekend after surviving a thriller against the Commanders last week. That doesn't take away the importance of Sunday's game, though. If Josh Allen can go, it's game on. If he can't, it's a trap that will be well set with Case Keenum waiting. Afterwards, the continuation of a rough stretch of games: at BUF, vs. DAL, vs. NE, vs. NYJ. The good side is that three of those games are at home. This is a huge month for the team.
3. Seattle Seahawks (6-3) Next game: at Tampa Bay (in Germany)
Seattle goes in to Germany to face Tom Brady before they go into their bye. They will remain in third place and in the lead in the NFC West, regardless of result this weekend. Will they continue to build upon what has been a Comeback Player of the Year season from QB Geno Smith?
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) Next game: vs. Seattle (in Germany)
The Bucs go in to this game knowing that they will still be in the lead afterwards, no matter the results of this game. Tom Brady seems to be super pumped about playing in Germany and will likely look to build off his magic he recaptured last week with a game winning drive. They too will be going in to the bye after this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) Next game: at Green Bay (5th via head to head win over NYG)
The Cowboys were spectators last week as the madness of the NFL went down. Things didn't go their way as Minnesota survived Washington, Seattle put away Arizona, and Philadelphia used a strong second half to put away the Texans. That's all beyond their control. What's in their control, is an interesting stretch to finish the month: at Green Bay, at Minnesota, and round two at home against the Giants.
6. New York Giants (6-2) Next game: vs. Houston (6th via head to head loss to DAL)
Like the Cowboys, the Giants also spectated and things didn't go their way. It's back to business for the G-Men as a Houston team that, despite having only one win, has only lost by more than 10 points twice. The flip side to that argument, with the exception of their most recent game (a loss to Seattle) all of the Giants' games have been decided by one score. Something will have to give.
7. San Francisco 49ers (4-4) Next game: vs. L.A. Charges
Also a spectator last weekend, their results were mixed. Seattle did win but the Rams, Falcons, and Commanders lost. So, they lost a little ground on the division leaders but are secure by a half game over the Commanders for the last wild card spot. The team will have to keep winning to give themselves a shot. Before they can think about round two against the Seahawks on December 15th (the Niners won the first game), they have to navigate the road in front of them first: vs. Chargers, at Cardinals, vs. Saints, vs Dolphins, vs Buccaneers.
First teams out
8. Washington Commanders (4-5)
9. Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
10. Los Angeles Rams (3-5)
11. Green Bay Packers (3-6)
12. New Orleans Saints (3-6)
13. Arizona Cardinals (3-6)
14. Chicago Bears (3-6)
Only the Panthers and Lions are seemingly out of it right now in the NFC.
Washington let one get away with their loss to Vikings last week. They have games against fellow wild card hopefuls on the horizon: week 12 against Atlanta and week 16 against SF.
Atlanta's path the to playoffs might only be through winning the division. Thursday's loss to the Panthers seriously hurt them. Tampa Bay currently holds that tiebreaker, though. The rematch against Tampa isn't until week 18, which the Falcons will host. Meanwhile, the Falcons have games against the Bears, Commanders, Saints and Cardinals before it.
The Rams' season long Super Bowl hangover continues and they are gonna need to navigate through some tough games to get back to the playoffs. Their next two games are against fellow wild card hopefuls in Cardinals and Saints.
Green Bay has likely forfeited the division over to Minnesota and is facing a tough four game stretch before their bye (Dallas, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Chicago). They hold the tiebreakers over the Saints (closer loss to Tampa), the Cardinals (conference record), and the Bears (head to head win).
The Saints are in the same boat as the Falcons and will likely have to beat out the Bucs for the division to get in the playoffs. They are behind the Packers due to a worse loss to Tampa currently despite sharing the same conference record as the Packers (2-4). After this week's game against the Steelers, two games against the Rams and 49ers await before a big rematch against Tampa, in Tampa, before the bye.
The Cardinals have a worse conference record (2-5) than the teams they are tied in record with except the Bears (1-5). Fortunately, they are only 1.5 games behind the 49ers in the wild card and have yet to play them this season. They'll get their first shot in two weeks after visiting the Rams first.
The Bears have the longest shot of anyone on this list as they are 1-5 in conference games with the only win being a HUGE one (a week 1 win against the 49ers) for tiebreaking purposes if they make it back in to the playoff mix. They have losses against two teams in front of them (Washington and Green Bay) and still have yet to face the Falcons and have their rematch against the Packers (at Soldier Field).
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